doi: 10.18178/ijssh.2025.15.2.1247
Comparison of Population Prediction Accuracy of Different Forecasting Models in the Yangtze River Delta
Tianyi Wei
- The University of London, London, United Kingdom
- Manuscript received January 9, 2025
- accepted February 13, 2025
- published April 25, 2025
Abstract
Prediction is an important aspect of modern scientific management. Accurate predictions can help decision-makers make the right decisions and improve the quality of their choices. This article studied the temporal evolution of the population in the Yangtze River Delta from 1990 to 2019 by using three grey models namely GM (1,1) model, GM (2,1) model, and DGM (2,1) model. It evaluated the fitting accuracy of different models for population prediction in the Yangtze River Delta using residual error test and posterior error test. The results showed that GM (1,1) fit well the most since the population growth rate in the Yangtze region is primarily time-homogeneous.
Keywords
- China’s demographic prediction
- forecasting and simulation
- models and applications
How to Cite
Tianyi Wei, "Comparison of Population Prediction Accuracy of Different Forecasting Models in the Yangtze River Delta," International Journal of Social Science and Humanity, vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 89-94, 2025. https://doi.org/ 10.18178/ijssh.2025.15.2.1247
Copyright & License
Copyright © 2025 by the authors. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).