IJSSH 2013 Vol.3(1): 79-82 ISSN: 2010-3646
DOI: 10.7763/IJSSH.2013.V3.199

How Futurists Look to Uncertainty Phenomena?

Khemis Mohamed
Abstract—This study aims to explore the key assumptions within deferent scenario approaches toward uncertainties which might change the future dramatically, the future is neither uncertain nor linear, and knowing precisely what will happen in the future is almost impossible, futurists do not claim to eliminate this uncertainty through using scenarios, but to reduce it as far as possible. Most of scenario users assume that uncertainties represent opportunities as well as risks, and they are difficult to predict whether the change is sustaining or disruptive, hence they gave much more focus on these phenomena to establish a new mode of thinking to anticipate and prepare to face wild cards of the future. This paper takes different typologies of scenarios as a referring concept to determine methodological tools in terms to build a solid knowledge around what is certain and uncertain, and intended to draw attention to the possibility of critical uncertainties, and also aimed to explain the epistemological vitality of scenario building approaches to understand discontinuities.

Index Terms—Complexity, scenario approaches, scenario building, uncertainties, wicked problems.

Khemis Mohamed is with the University of Kasdi Merbah, Ouargla- Algeria (e-mail: khemiss-moh@hotmail.com).

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Cite:Khemis Mohamed, "How Futurists Look to Uncertainty Phenomena?," International Journal of Social Science and Humanity vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 79-82, 2013.

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